Strategies / 02
Positioning around the transitions, not the trend.
A discretionary macro book expressing views on rates, currencies, commodities and equity indices, sized around identifiable catalysts and regime change rather than continuous market exposure.
- Market
- Rates, FX, commodities, indices
- Horizon
- Weeks to quarters
- Construction
- Catalyst-driven, asymmetric
Our approach
02.101
Regime before direction
The first question is which regime the market is in — what is being priced, what positioning implies, and what would have to break for that to change.
02
Asymmetry over accuracy
We prefer expressions where being wrong costs meaningfully less than being right pays, which often means options and structured expressions rather than linear exposure.
03
Patience as a position
Sitting in cash when nothing is mispriced is an active decision. The book is not required to be invested.
Process
02.201
Regime mapping
Ongoing assessment of growth, inflation, liquidity and policy across major economies, and what current pricing assumes.
02
Catalyst identification
Policy meetings, elections, data inflections and funding events where consensus is concentrated and could be dislodged.
03
Expression design
Choosing the instrument that best isolates the view with the least unintended exposure.
04
Sizing to the tail
Risk set against the scenario we are wrong about, not the scenario we expect.
05
Exit discipline
Predefined invalidation. Positions come off when the catalyst passes or the thesis is disproven, not when the loss becomes uncomfortable.
Risk
02.3Risk is managed where it originates.
Macro risk is dominated by correlation that appears only under stress. Exposure is reviewed by underlying driver rather than by asset class, so several positions expressing one view are recognised as one position. Liquidity is assessed on the assumption that it will be worst exactly when it is needed.
Other strategies
Investor access
For qualified investors.
Learn more about global macro at Antiphase, our process and access opportunities.